Both starters are struggling badly in 2026 — Rodriguez posts a 10.61 ERA in just 9.1 IP while Flaherty sits at 5.94 ERA and 0-6 with a bloated 1.66 WHIP across 47 IP. Neither team inspires confidence: Detroit is 2-8 in L10 despite the one-game win streak, while the Angels' key hitters (Trout, Adell, Soler) are all in deep freezes over the last 14 games. The matchup essentially pits two poor starters against two underperforming offenses, making outcome projection unreliable. Wind blowing in from NNE at Comerica is a mild suppressor, but with two bad pitchers that barely registers.

Davis Martin has been outstanding in 2026 — 2.04 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 7-1 record across 61.2 IP — and he faces a Twins offense that has cooled off significantly (3.6 R/G in L5) with several cold bats (Brooks Lee .204 L14, Austin Martin .212 L14). Chicago's lineup hits LHP very well at .247/.789 vs the .232/.705 they post against RHP, and they face Rojas (LHP) who has only 14.1 IP of track record. The Sox are scorching hot offensively (5.8 R/G in L5) and Murakami (.275 L14), Vargas, and Montgomery provide real power. Wind blowing in at 15 mph NNE is a mild suppressor for offense but benefits the elite Martin. At Rate Field, the edge is clearly Chicago.

Chris Sale is the best starter in this slate — 1.89 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 72 K in 62 IP, 7-3 — and he faces a Boston lineup that struggles vs LHP (.234/.674 vs RHP season splits suggest they rely on righty pitching matchups). While Boston has been hot in L5 (5.4 R/G, 27 R), Tolle at 2.45 ERA looks impressive but has only 36.2 IP, making the sample limited. Atlanta is the best team in this slate at 37-19 (.661) and carries a .751 OPS offense, even if their L5 has been cold (2.6 R/G). Sale's dominance should keep Boston's bats quiet enough for Atlanta's superior overall offense to win the day. Fenway's short left-field wall helps LHB but Sale limits contact anyway.

Both starters are struggling — Corbin at 3.86 ERA/1.40 WHIP with limited strikeout stuff (32 K in 44.1 IP), and Bassitt at a brutal 5.51 ERA/1.67 WHIP. Baltimore's lineup hits LHP poorly (.221/.663 vs LHP) which undercuts any home-field edge against Corbin. Toronto's offense vs RHP (.254/.702) is decent but key hitters are cold (Guerrero Jr. .244 L14, Okamoto .125 L14, Giménez .143 L14). Baltimore's recent L5 offense is excellent (6.4 R/G, 32 R) but their team ERA (4.68, RA/G 5.27) is a major liability. The two bad starters and mixed signals make this too difficult to project confidently.

Paul Skenes is elite — 3.00 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 65 K in 60 IP — and faces a Chicago Cubs offense that has collapsed (1-9 in L10, 3.4 R/G in L5) with multiple cold hitters (Hoerner .204 L14, Happ .154 L14, Crow-Armstrong .170 L14, PCA .170 L14). Pittsburgh's offense has been productive (4.8 R/G in L5) with Bregman hot (.322 L14 🔥), Reynolds hot (.315 L14 🔥), and Brandon Lowe posting elite production (.915 OPS, .291 L14). Colin Rea (4.83 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) is a significant step down from Skenes. PNC Park is a mild pitcher's park; wind blowing in from NNW at 12 mph further helps Skenes. The pitching edge here is stark.

Spencer Arrighetti has been exceptional in 2026 — 1.32 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6-1 across 41 IP — and pairs with a Houston offense that has exploded in L5 (6.2 R/G, 31 R in 5G, .834 OPS). Yordan Alvarez is arguably the best hitter in baseball right now (.312/.1.085 OPS, 20 HR, .304 L14) and the lineup has real pop. Texas is cold offensively (3.2 R/G in L5, .169 AVG in L5), and their offense hits Arrighetti's RHP handedness at only .239/.709. Eovaldi (3.65 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) is solid but the Rangers' .169 batting average in L5 and 4-6 in L10 trend suggests real weakness. Globe Life Field is an indoor/retractable dome park — weather is essentially neutral. The pitching-plus-offense combination favors Houston.

MLB Picks — May 28, 2026

Strong Leans

MIN @ CWS

ATL @ BOS

CHC @ PIT

HOU @ TEX

Passes

LAA @ DET

TOR @ BAL