Christian Scott holds a meaningful ERA advantage (3.17 vs. 5.75) and nearly identical WHIP to Nola (1.30 vs. 1.43), giving the Mets a real pitching edge in a matchup where the home starter has been well below average across 97 innings. The Phillies offense has cooled considerably over the last 10 games (3.1 R/G, .218 AVG, .628 OPS) with multiple key hitters — Harper, Marsh, Bohm — running cold, blunting their typical home-field advantage. The Mets, meanwhile, have surged offensively in their last five games (5.2 R/G, .269 AVG, .775 OPS), and at +109 the line offers slight positive value on what profiles as a coin-flip game leaning toward New York's pitching advantage.

MLB Picks — July 16, 2026

Leans

NYM @ PHI