Gavin Williams is the clear pitching edge here — a 3.76 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 248 strikeouts in 184.1 IP represents a significant quality gap over Anthony Kay (4.44 ERA, 1.37 WHIP). Cleveland's offense has been hot over the last 10 (8-2 record, 5.3 R/G over L5 stretch) and Steven Kwan and Angel Martínez are among the hotter bats in the lineup. Chicago does come in playing well (7-3 L10, W-streak) and has a handful of hot bats, but the White Sox lineup's splits vs RHP (.235/.716) are notably weaker than their vs-LHP numbers, and they're facing one of the better arms in the data set. At -149, the price is manageable and within the neutral value range for a clear-edge favorite.

Cam Schlittler is having a dominant season — a 1.95 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 239 K in 193.2 IP is elite by any measure, and the pitching advantage over Peralta (4.42 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) is substantial. The Yankees' overall team quality is excellent (93-68, 3.15 team ERA, 3.52 RA/G) and despite a modest recent offensive dip (L5 4.6 R/G), Ben Rice (41 HR, .347 L14) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (.286 L14) provide genuine firepower. Tampa Bay has the better overall record (98-64) and a strong offense vs RHP (.263/.752), but Schlittler's ability to suppress lineups overrides that split concern. The Rays' offense has gone notably cold in the last 10 games (3.8 R/G over L5, .226/.629), undercutting their seasonal numbers. At -123, the Yankees represent solid value given the pitching edge.

MLB Picks — October 5, 2026

Strong Leans

CWS @ CLE

NYY @ TB