NFL Picks — October 5, 2026

T. Shough's EPA/play of 0.044 versus C. Rush's -0.635 represents a structural, not marginal, performance gap -- and Shough's CPOE of +4.5 versus Rush's -13.4 reinforces that this is a real talent and execution separation. The Saints also dominate situationally with a 53.2% third-down rate, a 2-minute drill EPA/play of +0.332 versus the Falcons' -0.020, and a stronger SOS-adjusted schedule, making this a multi-factor lean with enough decisiveness to act on at a modest price.