This is a razor-thin matchup between two elite teams with near-identical records and run profiles, but Jacob Misiorowski holds the decisive pitching edge — his 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 252 strikeouts in 174.2 IP represent one of the most dominant individual seasons in this dataset. The Brewers face a LHP in Skubal, and Milwaukee's lineup does show a meaningful split disadvantage vs. LHP (.245/.706 vs. .264/.759 vs. RHP), which tempers offensive upside. However, Misiorowski's ability to neutralize the Dodgers' powerful lineup — which is itself susceptible to a cold stretch from Freeman, Ohtani, Muncy, and Edman — gives Milwaukee a real edge. The Brewers are also on a 5-game win streak with a slightly better overall record, and at -113 (essentially a coin-flip price), there is neutral-to-slight value on the home side given the pitching advantage.

MLB Picks — October 11, 2026

Leans

LAD @ MIL