NFL Picks — September 17, 2026

Buffalo wins the trench matchup decisively on both sides of the ball: their pass protection allows a QB hit rate of just 9.4% vs Detroit's 20.0%, and their run trench EPA/carry (-0.021 vs -0.124) is notably better, producing a composite trench edge that leans strongly in the Bills' favor. Allen's EPA/play (0.454 vs 0.146), CPOE (8.1 vs -2.9), and 2-minute drill EPA (0.940 vs -0.237) reinforce a structural QB advantage that is upstream-validated by the trench data rather than contradicted by it. Detroit's red zone TD% (80.0%) is a meaningful counterpoint and keeps this from being a dominant pick, but the combined trench and QB signal clears the decisive-edge threshold.