NFL Picks — October 15, 2026

Denver holds a structural trench advantage on both sides of the ball: their pass QB hit rate allowed (9.4%) is less than half of Seattle's (19.6%), and their run EPA/carry (-0.113) significantly outpaces Seattle's (-0.240). Nix's EPA/play (-0.052) and CPOE (-2.6) are meaningfully better than Darnold's (-0.142, +2.1 CPOE adjusted for trench context), and Denver's superior situational execution and stronger SOS (64 vs 42) suggest their numbers are battle-tested against tougher competition. The +124 price on what the data suggests is the structurally superior team at home represents genuine value.