NFL Picks — October 26, 2026

Dallas holds a meaningful structural edge through Prescott's significant EPA/play advantage (0.144 vs -0.058) and superior CPOE (0.8 vs -2.2), and the Cowboys also win the situational efficiency battle across 3rd down (47.2% vs 37.3%) and red zone TD% (77.3% vs 68.8%). The trench matchup is narrow but leans slightly Dallas on the run side (-0.020 vs -0.145 rush EPA/carry), while the pass trench gap is modest (16.7% vs 14.5% QB hit rate against Dallas). However, the combination of a clear QB performance gap and cleaner situational execution gives Dallas a genuine structural edge that is not fully reflected in the odds given the home-field framing.