WNBA Picks — September 23, 2026
Leans
Seattle Storm vs Dallas Wings
LeanDallas holds a meaningful structural edge with an offensive rating of 107 vs Seattle's 99, and allows just 86 opponent PPG compared to Seattle's 91, suggesting superiority on both ends of the floor. The Wings also show a rim FG% advantage on offense (46.7% vs 42.3%) while both teams allow the same rate at the rim, giving Dallas a net shot quality edge. The travel disadvantage (1679 miles) and Seattle's home setting are real concerns that compress the edge, but the efficiency differentials are too significant to ignore.
Passes
New York Liberty vs Atlanta Dream
PassEvaluating from the New York Liberty perspective, the data shows near-identical offensive ratings (109 vs 110), identical defensive PPG allowed (87 vs 87), identical pace (78), identical rest (2 days each), and mirrored recent form (both 0-1/1-0 with +0 avg point diff). The only meaningful edge is Atlanta's 746-mile travel disadvantage versus New York's home venue, which provides a modest but insufficient edge to justify a moneyline wager at -136 pricing.