Framber Valdez is a massive upgrade over Lovelady on the mound — 168.2 IP vs 32.2 IP, and Lovelady's 1.84 WHIP is alarming at small sample size. Detroit's lineup has multiple hot bats (Torkelson .361, Greene .358, Clark .340 L14) and has been hitting 4.9 R/G over the last 10 games. Washington hits LHP reasonably (.776 OPS), but Lovelady's high WHIP undermines confidence in him containing Detroit's lineup. Both teams are 74-84, but Detroit's pitching edge is clear with a better team ERA (3.79 vs 4.49) and superior starter.

Both starters have elevated ERAs (Scherzer 6.07, Bassitt 4.64) and neither offers a clean pitching edge. Baltimore's lineup is cold overall — Taveras, Basallo, Beavers, Jackson all carrying ❄️ in recent form — and their L10 offense is down to 3.6 R/G. Toronto's lineup is similarly underwhelming with Clement and Valenzuela cold. This is a mediocre-vs-mediocre matchup with no meaningful edge on either side.

Both pitchers are TBD, making any pitching-based analysis impossible. Without confirmed starters, the pitching gate cannot be cleared and no meaningful edge can be identified. Both teams are nearly identical in record and recent form. This is an automatic pass.

Minnesota is favored at -158 but brings real vulnerabilities: their L10 is only 4-6, offense has dropped to 3.6 R/G over the last 10 games, and they hit LHP at just .676 OPS — opposing their own LHP starter Prielipp who is also facing a Giants lineup that hits LHP at .669 OPS. Perdomo has a strong ERA (3.72) but only 19.1 IP, which is far too small to trust. The Giants are 65-93 and cold overall. The price on Minnesota is steep at -158 for a team in poor offensive form, and Perdomo is an unknown. No clean edge.

Pittsburgh has strong momentum with a W5 streak, 6-4 L10, and is the better team at 80-77. Lake Bachar has an excellent ERA (3.56) and WHIP (1.14) in 83.1 IP — a legitimate quality start threat. St. Louis counters with Liberatore, who has a bloated ERA (5.36) and WHIP (1.49) over nearly 150 innings. The Cardinals are also in terrible recent form — just 3.6 R/G over the last 10 games with a miserable .590 OPS L10. Pittsburgh's offense has Brandon Lowe and Oneil Cruz both hot, and the -142 price is reasonable for a team on a 5-game win streak against a cold Cardinals squad.

Logan Henderson is one of the best starters in baseball this season: 2.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP in 93.1 IP — that is elite. Milwaukee is also the superior team at 98-59 with a dominant offense that has scored 6.4 R/G over the last 10 games. Nola's ERA (4.49) and WHIP (1.35) are pedestrian, and Philadelphia's lineup has gone cold with Schwarber, Stott, Marsh, and Realmuto all in ❄️ territory recently. Milwaukee hit RHP at .759 OPS this season. The Brewers are slight favorites at -126, offering good value given their clear advantages in pitching, offense, and form.

Gerrit Cole (3.63 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) gives New York a clear pitching edge over Seymour (4.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), though both are competent starters. The Yankees have the best team ERA in this slate (3.14) and their lineup hits LHP at .737 OPS with Jazz Chisholm Jr. scorching hot (.366 L14). Tampa Bay is an excellent team at 96-61 with 8-2 L10, but their offense has cooled to 4.8 R/G with multiple stars cold (Caminero, Díaz both ❄️). The -136 price for New York at home with Cole on the mound is fair but not exceptional value given Tampa's quality.

This is one of the best value plays of the slate. Cleveland is on a W6 streak, 8-2 L10, and has scored 5.4 R/G over the last 10 games. Foster Griffin is having a standout season (3.67 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 15-5 record), a legitimate ace-caliber performance. Sonny Gray is excellent (2.82 ERA), but Boston's offense has completely collapsed — just 2.8 R/G over the last 10 games on a 4-6 L10 with a 3-game losing streak. Cleveland at +113 with hot form, a quality starter, and a cold Red Sox offense is strong value. The pitching matchup is essentially even at the top level, but Cleveland's form edge is enormous.

Chris Sale is having a dominant season: 2.18 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 190 strikeouts in 157 innings — one of the best starters in the NL. Atlanta's lineup is 5.1 R/G over the last 10 games with Olson, Drake Baldwin, Dubon, and Yastrzemski all hot in recent games. Cincinnati counters with Abbott (4.70 ERA, 1.47 WHIP), a well below-average starter who will struggle against a quality Braves lineup. The Reds are 73-84, cold offensively (3.5 R/G L10), and have multiple cold hitters (Hayes, Trevino). Despite the -271 price being steep, Sale vs Abbott is as lopsided a pitching matchup as you'll find. However, the price creates significant negative value — lean is strong but the juice makes it a pass for a formal play.

Chicago's Bryan Hudson has a strong ERA (3.03) and solid WHIP (1.21) in 65+ innings. Kansas City counters with Seth Lugo who has struggled badly this year — 5.06 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over 169 innings is poor for a veteran. The Royals are 67-90, on a 5-game losing streak, and 2-8 in their last 10 games — one of the worst recent forms in baseball. CWS has scored 5.9 R/G over the last 10 games and is on a W3 streak. White Sox are -118 favorites which is essentially a pick'em — modest positive edge here but not strong enough for a formal lean given Hudson's smaller sample.

Chicago's Cubs have the best offense in this matchup — 5.43 R/G on the season, 5.7 R/G L10, with Pete Crow-Armstrong (.952 OPS, 45 HR) leading a powerful lineup. Gausman (4.55 ERA) is only adequate, but Gusto (4.14 ERA, 1.44 WHIP in 82.2 IP) gives the Cubs offense a favorable matchup. Miami's lineup has some hot bats (Marsee, Sanoja L14 hot) but the team ERA is weaker. The Cubs are 87-70 and a clearly superior team at home. The -179 price is in the slight negative value range, limiting this to a lean rather than a strong play.

Nolan McLean is having a strong season — 3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 189 Ks in 172.2 innings — a legitimate top-of-rotation arm. Texas counters with Cody Bradford, who is 0-5 with a 4.19 ERA and concerning 1.50 WHIP in only 38.2 innings. The Mets hit RHP (vs Bradford) at .713 OPS and have several hot hitters recently (Ewing, Baty, Vientos in ❄️ form recently but multiple other hot bats). The Mets are near even-money at -107, representing solid value for the superior pitching matchup. Texas hits LHP (Bradford is LHP) — wait, Mets throw RHP McLean vs Texas LHP Bradford — Rangers hit LHP at .762 OPS which is a threat, but Bradford has been poor this year.

Arizona is the better team and should win this game, but the Coors Field environment is a major equalizer that inflates run totals and makes pitching-based advantages erode quickly. Merrill Kelly's ERA (5.00) is poor and his WHIP (1.47) is concerning, while Mason Adams has only 23 innings pitched — far too small a sample. Arizona hits RHP at only .688 OPS and the Rockies have a solid lineup at Coors. The -162 price also carries negative value. With bad pitching on both sides and Coors in play, this is a pass.

Walbert Ureña has been impressive this season — 2.74 ERA, 1.21 WHIP in 144+ innings — a strong, proven starter. The Athletics counter with Jeffrey Springs (6.18 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 4-14 record) — one of the worst starters in baseball this year. The Angels are favored at -131, though they are 60-97 and offensively limited. The pitching matchup strongly favors LAA, and the Athletics hit RHP at .720 OPS — modest. This is a lean based on the Ureña vs Springs disparity, but the Angels' offensive limitations (3.8 R/G L10) and poor season record cap confidence.

Yamamoto is elite (2.51 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 178 Ks in 179 IP) and the Dodgers are 97-60 on a 5-game win streak — clearly the superior team. However, the -224 price represents significant negative value that requires an overwhelming edge to play. San Diego is 87-70, on a hot streak offensively (6.4 R/G L10, .883 OPS L10) with multiple blazing hot bats (Tatis, Merrill, France, Cronenworth, Taylor all 🔥). Robbie Ray is a solid veteran starter. The Padres absolutely can win this game given their current form, and paying -224 on a matchup where the underdog has legitimate firepower is not sound value. Dodgers are the pick on team quality but -224 is a hard pass.

Houston's Yordan Alvarez (1.032 OPS, 41 HR) is a monster, but the Astros are 3-7 in their last 10 games and only averaging 3.3 R/G recently. Ethan Pecko has only 28.2 innings pitched — far too small a sample to trust at this level. Kirby (4.24 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) is mediocre, and Seattle has been hot offensively (5.3 R/G L10) with Arozarena and Rodriguez both 🔥. However, the Astros are +108 underdogs with better lineup quality on paper when healthy. The matchup is too even with Pecko being a massive unknown to take a strong position.

MLB Picks — September 23, 2026

Strong Leans

STL @ PIT

MIL @ PHI

CLE @ BOS

CIN @ ATL

Leans

WSH @ DET

TB @ NYY

CWS @ KC

MIA @ CHC

NYM @ TEX

LAA @ ATH

Passes

TOR @ BAL (Game 1)

TOR @ BAL (Game 2)

MIN @ SF

AZ @ COL

SD @ LAD

HOU @ SEA