Braxton Ashcraft is the clear pitching advantage here with a 3.24 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 9-3 record over 108.1 innings — elite stuff compared to Sproat's 5.13 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Pittsburgh's lineup is scorching hot (6.3 R/G over last 10 games, .289/.836) and multiple hitters are trending up, including Valdez, Gonzales, and Mangum. Ashcraft's pitch quality alone earns the edge, and the Pirates at +104 offers real value for a home underdog with a superior starter. Milwaukee's offense has cooled slightly (4.6 R/G L5) and faces a pitcher who limits damage.

Drohan's 2.97 ERA and 1.24 WHIP give Milwaukee a meaningful pitching edge over Chandler's 4.82 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Pittsburgh's lineup hits LHP worse (.244/.689 vs LHP vs .269/.791 vs RHP), creating a real split disadvantage. Milwaukee's overall team quality (59-34) and Drohan's efficiency make them the play despite the lineup's recent cooling. The -126 price is reasonable for a team this good with a solid pitching edge.

Joe Ryan (2.85 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 122 K in 104.1 IP) is a dominant ace-level starter versus Ryan Johnson's dismal 6.99 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in only 28.1 innings. Minnesota's lineup hits RHP much better (.256/.761 vs RHP vs .226/.675 vs LHP), a strong split advantage facing Johnson. The Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 and scoring only 3.9 R/G in the L5, making this a multi-factor lean for Minnesota. The -181 price is steep but the pitching edge here is overwhelming.

Both starters are LHP with Hudson posting a brilliant 2.25 ERA but in only 40 innings (small sample concern). Jump's 3.77 ERA is solid but also limited (43 IP). The Athletics are on a brutal 7-game losing streak and scoring only 3.4 R/G in the L5, while the White Sox offense also struggled recently (4.4 R/G L5). Both lineups hit LHP worse. With both pitchers having small samples and mixed offensive indicators, this game doesn't offer a clean edge.

Both starters are struggling — Freeland posts a 7.46 ERA and Mahle a 5.70 ERA with a 1-8 record. Neither pitcher provides a real edge. Colorado's offense has been hot (6.6 R/G L5, .835 OPS L5) and multiple hitters are scorching, but San Francisco's offense hits LHP slightly worse. The Giants lineup features Arraez (.382 L14) and Devers (.367 L14) in excellent form, but Mahle is too unreliable to back confidently. This is a battle of flawed starters with no clean edge.

Cam Schlittler is one of the best starters in this slate: 2.01 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 131 K in 112 innings with a 9-5 record. Washington counters with Poulin's intriguing 2.83 ERA but in only 35 innings — a very thin sample. The Yankees' offense hits LHP better (.743 OPS vs .737 vs RHP), and Washington's lineup performs significantly worse vs RHP (.750 OPS vs .784 vs LHP). The -198 price is steep but Schlittler's elite performance justifies a lean, and Washington's recent offensive surge (.916 OPS L5) is a concern to size.

Boston's starter is TBD, which makes it impossible to properly evaluate the pitching matchup — the most critical factor. Boston's 7-game winning streak and hot recent form (5.0 R/G L5) is notable, but their offense struggles vs RHP (.674 OPS vs RHP vs .786 vs LHP), a meaningful disadvantage against Peralta. The Mets have their own offensive pop recently (5.6 R/G L5) but Peralta's 4.68 ERA and 1.42 WHIP are nothing special. Without a confirmed Boston starter, this is a mandatory pass.

Logan Gilbert (3.19 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 114 K in 107.1 IP) is a legitimate ace-level arm and holds a clear edge over Griffin Jax (3.60 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 65 IP). Gilbert's elite WHIP and strikeout rate give Seattle a real pitching advantage. The Rays' offense hits RHP at .263/.756 which is solid, but Gilbert suppresses lineups effectively. Seattle's price as a slight favorite (-105) represents neutral value. The main hesitation is Seattle's anemic recent offense (4.1 R/G L5, .211/.633), which limits confidence.

Eury Pérez (3.84 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 89 K in 79.2 IP) has a meaningful edge over Bibee (4.06 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2-9 record). Miami's offense is on fire — 6.7 R/G over the last 10 games with a .307/.960 OPS L5 — and multiple hitters (Lopez .367 L14, Edwards .353 L14, Sanoja .372 L14) are scorching hot. Cleveland's offense is among the weaker in this slate (3.96 R/G, .677 OPS) with numerous cold hitters. The Marlins at -155 is fair value given the offensive explosion and home advantage.

Both starters are excellent: Sánchez posts a 2.62 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 137 K over 120.1 innings (10-4), while Mize shows a 2.64 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 71.2 IP. Detroit's lineup hits LHP slightly worse (.713 vs .717 vs RHP) and Philadelphia's offense has cooled (4.0 R/G L5). Detroit's recent form is exceptional (9-1 L10, 6.1 R/G L5, 6-game win streak) but both pitchers are elite. A battle of two top starters with good form on both sides makes this too even to pick confidently.

Neither team offers a compelling edge. Cameron (4.77 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) and Bradish (3.75 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) are both middle-of-the-road starters with elevated WHIPs. Baltimore's offense hits LHP much worse (.676 OPS vs LHP vs .733 vs RHP), creating a real split disadvantage at home against Cameron. KC is 3-7 in the L10 and on a 3-game losing streak. Both teams are underperforming and the pitching matchup doesn't provide enough separation to warrant a play.

Peter Lambert (3.26 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) has a slight edge over Rocker (3.95 ERA, 1.34 WHIP), but neither provides a dominant pitching advantage. The Rangers hit RHP only at .242/.707, while Houston hits RHP at .243/.732 — nearly identical splits. Both teams have moderate recent form. Yordan Alvarez (.241 L14) is in a cold stretch, limiting Houston's ceiling. The near-even moneyline (HOU +100 / TEX -120) reflects the toss-up nature of this game accurately.

Chicago's offense hits LHP significantly better (.776 OPS vs LHP vs .733 vs RHP) and faces Lodolo's 4.68 ERA and 1.46 WHIP — a vulnerable matchup. The Cubs lineup has multiple hot hitters (Crow-Armstrong .320 L14, Conforto .293 L14, Swanson .264 L14) and has been scoring well (5.8 R/G L5). Cincinnati's offense struggles against RHP (.682 OPS vs RHP vs .762 vs LHP), a notable disadvantage against Assad. The Cubs' superior team record (52-42 vs 43-50) and split advantages make them the lean at near-even odds (-105).

Reynaldo López (3.18 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 4-1) holds a meaningful advantage over Liberatore's poor 5.34 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Atlanta's offense hits RHP better (.737 OPS vs .701 vs LHP), and though they face a LHP in Liberatore, the Cardinals starter is too hittable to provide a significant edge. St. Louis hits RHP at .711 OPS while Atlanta's park-neutral metrics look better team-wide. Atlanta's 54-39 record reflects elite team quality. The near-even price (-108) offers neutral value for the better team with the better starter.

Yesavage (3.31 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) has a clear edge over Buehler (5.07 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), but Toronto's offense has gone ice cold (3.8 R/G L5, .208/.580) and multiple key hitters are struggling (Guerrero .170 L14, Varsho .149 L14). San Diego's offense is also weak (3.6 R/G L5) and the Padres are 3-7 in the L10 on a 2-game skid. Toronto has the pitching edge but their offensive struggles and near-identical moneyline make this too uncertain to commit. The data doesn't provide a clean edge.

The Dodgers are clearly the better team across every dimension: Yamamoto's 2.49 ERA and 0.88 WHIP is elite, their offense is the best in this slate (.784 OPS, 5.27 R/G) with multiple dangerous hitters (Freeman .352 L14, Tucker .340 L14, Betts .310 L14), and they're 61-34. However, the -283 moneyline is a significant negative value that requires nearly overwhelming conviction to play at positive EV. Arizona hits RHP poorly (.659 OPS) with Pfaadt being inconsistent (4.84 ERA). The win probability strongly favors the Dodgers but the -283 price tag makes this a pass on value grounds.

MLB Picks — July 11, 2026

Strong Leans

MIL @ PIT

LAA @ MIN

Leans

MIL @ PIT (Game 2)

NYY @ WSH

SEA @ TB

CLE @ MIA

CHC @ CIN

ATL @ STL

Passes

ATH @ CWS

COL @ SF

BOS @ NYM

PHI @ DET

KC @ BAL

HOU @ TEX

TOR @ SD

AZ @ LAD